Friday, 9 September 2011

Bye Bye SocGen

The market has decided to hammer out SocGen for good reasons.
Europe's most exposed PIGS bank loses over 7% again today in Paris reaching new Lehman lows. Shares have been trading at Eur 140 only in 2007 before settling around 18 euros today on renewed concerns about Greece and the overall European debt crisis.

Supposably CG has about 50bn in capital on 1.1tn in assets giving a massive 22x leverage. Apparently the market doesn't buy it as it values the equity around 15bn.

While the banksters don't mark-to-market, the market will

Goodbye Trichet, welcome easening

After yesterday's rather amusing ECB press conference, which happned to be Trichet's last the market is looking forward to the actions of the new president, Italy's Marco Draghi.
Trichet laid the perfect groundwork for more easening by warning the lower growth is the threat, not higher inflation, implying that Draghi's first action could be lowering rates.

While praised for his hawkish attitude, has the core of Europe gotten its president its deserved, or will further austerity measures in Italy end the legacy of Trichet?

Read more on
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-08/trichet-clears-the-decks-for-draghi-to-use-all-tools-in-ecb-box.html

Suggestions please!

This morning IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said governments and policy makers must take action to support the recovery, as growth risk are more of a concern compared to inflation. Policy makers should consider "unconventional" measures in making sure economic growth will not slow down.
HIghly indebted consumers and European governments have massively reduced the scope for any effective action to tackle a slowdown. So question to you Ms. Lagarde, what would be these measures?

Read more on
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-09/lagarde-says-policy-makers-should-act-boldly-to-support-global-recovery.html

Thursday, 8 September 2011

On what kind of drugs is Trichet?

How a boring Central Bank press conference can end hilarious!

http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=share&cid=260559&shareToken=MzozNmI0MmFhZC1jYmU0LTRlYWQtYmI2Zi05Y2IxMDY3ZDFlMjI%3D

And here's the official next target miss

Greece's budget deficit for 2011 will be wider than agreed during the bailouts. Minister Chrysochoids said his country could fall behind the 7.6% target by a point or so.
Apparently the minister is not impressed with the threat of a 8 billion tranche being held back next month as the "Trojka" would like to see progress and reforms being done.
Earlier today it was announced that Greece's GDP fell 7.6% in the second quarter as austerity measures had a severe impact on the economy.

Read more on
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/08/eurozone-greece-deficit-idUSL5E7K83FN20110908

Greece is falling of a cliff

The Greece economy continued to implode in the second quarter of 2011 as economic output fell a whopping 7.3% compared to last year. Combined with unemployment hitting new records of 16% this means that again fiscal targets are likely not to be met as the deficit will come in at 8-9%
After missing targets again, when will Europe finally get enough of lose promises and come up with the next "structural" solution??

Read more on
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/latest-greek-economic-collapse-means-country-will-soon-be-out-eurozone-or-bankrupt-or-both

Price stabeeletee

This afternoon we have witnessed the non-event called the ECB press conference. Price stabeleeletee is under cuntrol, but risks to growth are to the downside. Nothing new.
Still market is happy, why? "ECB stands ready to pump more cash into markets should that be required"